Deterministic techniques assume that no uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Answer
True
False
A joint probability is the probability that two or more events that are mutually exclusive can occur simultaneously.
Answer
True
False
An inspector correctly identifies defective products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Answer
True
False
A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Answer
True
False
A table of random numbers must be normally distributed and efficiently generated.
Answer
True
False
Starting conditions have no impact on the validity of a simulation model.
Answer
True
False
Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical patterns.
Answer
True
False
The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about what will occur in the future.
Answer
True
False
In Bayesian analysis, additional information is used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an event.
Answer
| marginal | ||
| conditional | ||
| binomial | ||
| revised |
A company markets educational software products, and is ready to place three new products on the market. Past experience has shown that for this particular software, the chance of “success” is 80%. Assume that the probability of success is independent for each product. What is the probability that exactly 1 of the 3 products is successful?
Answer
| 0.80 | ||
| 0.032 | ||
| 0.24 | ||
| 0.096 |
The __________ is the maximum amount a decision maker would pay for additional information.
Answer
| expected opportunity loss | ||
| expected value | ||
| expected value of perfect information | ||
| none of the above |
Two hundred simulation runs were completed using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table below. The average number of breakdowns from the simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
| No. of breakdowns per week | Probability | Cumulative probability |
| 0 | .10 | .10 |
| 1 | .25 | .35 |
| 2 | .36 | .71 |
| 3 | .22 | .93 |
| 4 | .07 | 1.00 |
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Answer
| .10 | ||
| .25 | ||
| .35 | ||
| .71 |
A seed value is a(n)
Answer
| steady state solution of a simulation experiment | ||
| number used to start a stream of random numbers | ||
| first run of a simulation model | ||
| analytic solution of a simulation experiment |
In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Answer
| sampling from | ||
| running | ||
| integrating | ||
| implementing |
Random numbers generated by a __________ process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom numbers.
Answer
| physical / physical | ||
| physical / mathematical | ||
| mathematical / physical | ||
| mathematical / mathematical |
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
| Trend only | ||
| Trend plus seasonal | ||
| Seasonal only | ||
| None of the above |
Coefficient of determination is the percentage of the variation in the __________ variable that results from the __________ variable.
Answer
| dependent, dependent | ||
| independent, dependent | ||
| dependent, independent | ||
| independent, independent |
In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to __________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Answer
| -1 | ||
| 0 | ||
| 1 | ||
| -1 or 1 |
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Answer
| Trend only | ||
| Trend plus seasonal | ||
| Cyclical only | ||
| None of the above |
__________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.
Answer
| Forecast mistake | ||
| Forecast error | ||
| MAD | ||
| Forecast accuracy |
Consider the following demand and forecast.
| Period | Demand | Forecast |
| 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | 18 | 20 |
| 4 | 22 |
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Answer
| 21 | ||
| 22 | ||
| 23 | ||
| none of the above |
Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Answer
| .01 | ||
| .10 | ||
| .50 | ||
| .90 |
__________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.
Answer
| Regression | ||
| Qualitative | ||
| Time series | ||
| all of the above |
__________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.
Answer
| Cumulative error | ||
| MAD | ||
| MAPD | ||
| Average error |
A life insurance company wants to estimate their annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution.
(Table)
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Answer
An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Answer
The local operations manager for the IRS must decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected value of perfect information? Note: Please express your answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.
Answer
An investor is considering 4 different opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35, and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Answer
Consider the following probability distribution:
| Demand | Probability |
| 0 | 0.15 |
| 1 | 0.30 |
| 2 | 0.25 |
| 3 | 0.15 |
| 4 | 0.15 |
Partition 100 numbers from 0 to 99 according to the probability of each demand value, starting with 0. A number from the 100 numbers is going to be selected. What is the corresponding demand value if 62 is selected?
Answer
Given the following data, compute the MAD for the forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
| 2001 | 16 | 18 |
| 2002 | 20 | 19 |
| 2003 | 18 | 24 |
Answer
The following data summarizes the historical demand for a product
| Month | Actual Demand |
| March | 20 |
| April | 25 |
| May | 40 |
| June | 35 |
| July | 30 |
| August | 45 |
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and 42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Answer
The following sales data are available for 2003-2008.
(Table)
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009, where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Answer
Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Answer
he following data summarizes the historical demand for a product.
| Month | Actual Demand |
| March | 20 |
| April | 25 |
| May | 40 |
| June | 35 |
| July | 30 |
| August | 45 |
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for August.
Answer
This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Answer
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
Robert wants to know if there is a relation between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Answer
Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two places after the decimal.
Answer
Is this the question you were looking for? If so, place your order here to get started!
