Probability exam question

Super Cola is also considering the introduction of a root beer drink. The company feels that the probability that the product will be a success is .6. The payoff table is as follows:

Success (s1) Failure (s2) Produce (d1) $250,000 -$300,000 Do Not Produce (d2) -$ 50,000 -$ 20,000

The company has a choice of two research firms to obtain information for this product. Stanton Marketing has market indicators, I1 and I2 for which P(I1 | s1) = .7 and P(I1 | s2) = .4. New World Marketing has indicators J1 and J2 for which P(J1 | s1) = .6 and P(J1 | s2) = .3. Show or explain how you get your answer to each of the following. a. What is the optimal decision if neither firm is used? Over what probability of success range is this decision optimal? b. What is the EVPI? c. Find the EVSIs and efficiencies for Stanton and New World. d. If both firms charge $5,000, which firm should be hired? e. If Stanton charges $10,000 and New World charges $4,000, which firm should Super Cola hire? Why?

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